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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest shock.

But the current race is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still